EV Calculator
Compare the EV of call, raise and fold. Integrate fold equity and visualize the complete decision tree.
Situation
Probabilité que l'adversaire fold si vous relancez
Seuils de rentabilité
Arbre de décision
Call (60€)
Vous gagnez : 35% × 220€ = 77.0€
Vous perdez : 65% × 60€ = 39.0€
EV = +38.0€
Raise (180€)
Adversaire fold (30%) → vous gagnez 160€
Adversaire call (70%) → EV = 44.0€
EV = +78.8€
Fold
EV = 0€ (vous ne perdez et ne gagnez rien de plus)
Action optimale
⬆ RAISE
EV = +78.8€ par situation
Comprendre l'EV au poker
L'Expected Value (EV) est le gain moyen d'une action sur un grand nombre de répétitions. Au poker, chaque décision — call, raise, fold — a une EV.
EV(call) = (équité × pot après call) − (1 − équité) × montant du call
EV(raise) = (fold equity × pot actuel) + (1 − fold equity) × EV quand adversaire call
EV(fold) = 0 (référence neutre)
💡 Pour connaître votre équité exacte, utilisez le calculateur d'équité. Pour les cotes du pot, consultez le calculateur de pot odds.
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Expected value: compare your options before you act
Expected value (EV) is the average result of a decision if you could replay it thousands of times. This calculator weighs each action — call, raise, fold — from your equity, the pot, the price, and your fold equity when you bet or raise. A play is profitable when its EV beats the alternatives, not when it happens to win once.
It shines on semi-bluff decisions: a raise with a draw can show a higher EV than a call even when you are behind, because fold equity adds a second way to win. To build that intuition, read value betting — getting called by worse and combos — why some hands bluff better.
How to use it
- Set the pot, the bet size and your equity (measured with the equity calculator).
- For aggressive lines, add your estimate of how often the opponent folds.
- Compare the EV of each action and pick the highest — then sanity-check the fold-equity assumption, it drives most of the result.
Frequently asked questions
+What does a positive EV actually mean?
That the action wins chips on average over many repetitions. Any single outcome can still lose — EV describes the long run, which is why volume and bankroll management matter as much as the decision itself.
+How do I estimate fold equity honestly?
Anchor it to the opponent profile and the board: tight players over-fold on scary cards, calling stations barely fold at all. When in doubt, run the calculator with a pessimistic and an optimistic fold percentage — if the play is +EV in both cases, it is robust.
+Is chip EV the same as tournament EV?
No. In tournaments, ICM converts chips into prize-money value: near the bubble, a chip-EV-neutral gamble can be clearly losing in money terms. Use chip EV for cash games and early tournament stages, and add ICM judgment late.
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