Graphs and EV curves are powerful visual tools but are easily misinterpreted. Understanding what they really show prevents costly mistakes.
Types of Graphs
Results graph (actual winnings): shows what you actually won or lost. Heavily influenced by variance.
EV graph (expected value): shows what you should have won based on your decisions. More reliable indicator of skill.
All-in EV graph: specifically tracks your expected value in all-in situations. Shows if you’re running above or below expectation.
How to Read Your Graphs
Short-term results graph is noise. Focus on the EV line for skill assessment.
A gap between results and EV (running bad) is normal and temporary.
Long-term trends matter more than daily/weekly swings.
Interpretation Traps
Confirmation bias: only looking at graphs when winning
Over-attributing bad results to bad luck (sometimes you’re playing badly too)
Ignoring the EV line when it shows you’re a losing player
When Graphs Are Useful
After 10,000+ hands for meaningful EV trends. After 50,000+ for reliable win rate assessment.
